Throughout the week we've seen a number of data points released out of the US, pointing to a slowdown in the jobs market, and the question is being asked again – are we in a recession?
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Apollo's Chief Economist, Torsten Sløk, wrote a great piece on why the US is not in recession (yet), and why this is the soft landing we have been longing for.
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Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank published this chart. What he's showing us is that if we were in a recession, what happens historically, is that we see break in the job numbers – to negative. He points out that so far in this cycle we haven't seen a sub 100,000 print.
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Some are referring to this as "The Great Normalisation", which I tend to agree with. Initial unemployment and layoff claims remain low, while productivity growth is up. Furthermore, it’s possible that much of the recent rise in unemployment is down to an increase in the labour force through record migration or continued post-Covid normalisation.
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For now, roll your worries into next month.
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